Framework For Quantifying And Tailoring Complexity And Risk To Manage Uncertainty In Developing Complex Products And Systems

FRAMEWORK FOR QUANTIFYING AND TAILORING COMPLEXITYAND RISK TO MANAGE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPING COMPLEXPRODUCTS AND SYSTEMSbyDARRELL WILLIAMSAugust 2013Advisor: Dr. Ratna Babu ChinnamMajor: Industrial EngineeringDegree: Doctor of PhilosophyIn recent years there has been a renewed interest in product complexity due its negativeimpact on launch performance. Research indicates that underestimating complexity is one of themost common errors repeated by new product development (NPD) teams. It was concluded thatthe companies that successfully manage complexity can maintain a competitive advantage. Thisis particularly true of CoPS projects (Complex Products and Systems) which are defined aslarge-scale, high value, engineering intensive products and systems. Investment in CoPSprojects continues to grow worldwide, with recent estimates placed at over $500B annually. In this research we present methods to improve the planning and coordination of complexityand risk in CoPS projects to support launch success. The methods are designed to be consistent with systems engineering practices which are commonly used in their development. The research proposes novel methods for the assessment, quantification, and management ofdevelopment complexity and risk. The models are initiated from preliminary customerrequirements so they may be implemented at the earliest point in the development process and yield the most significant cost savings and impact.